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We understand the business energy market can be challenging.

Our specialists compile a Market Drivers report each month.

We have highlighted Bearish drivers, expected to contribute to the market lowering, and Bullish drivers, expected to contribute to the market going higher.

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Bearish Drivers

– Stable storages in the UK and Europe having successfully navigated winter 22
– Stable LNG cargoes to the UK with 11 expected to arrive over the next 3 weeks

Bullish Drivers

– Maintenance season brings with it planned and unplanned outages over the next few months
– Cooler weather for the remainder of April and into May
– Ongoing concerns with the French Nuclear situation amid strikes and outages for repairs to the fleet
– Speculation over the weather for next winter season will add pressure to gas injections throughout summer 23
– Ongoing supply cuts via Ukraine to continue being a bullish factor albeit less significant compared to last year

Volatility in March came from French Nuclear outages due to ongoing concerns surrounding the integrity of the EDF Nuclear fleet coupled with French strikes, which, as of the time of writing, are still ongoing. Elsewhere, markets traded stably with comfortable weather forecasts helping curtail demand.

March was generally a stable month for gas prices with mostly bearish movement throughout before ending the month around the same level as what it started. March 7th saw the first news of the worker strikes in French LNG terminals resulting in nominations for these terminals dropping to zero until the 14th of March. The fourth French LNG terminal, Dunkerque, issued a shutdown for the same rea-son for March 7-9th. UK Gas supply was relatively stable throughout the months with comfortably weather conditions helping curtail demand. Some volatility came mid month as worries around French nuclear availability after corrosion cracks were discovered on two more reactors on Thursday and EDF indicated that there is corrosion risk to more reactors and ordered the inspection of about 200 pipe welding. The winter 22 season ended the month on much needed recovery since the highs of August/September 22 and European storages ended the season around 56% full.

Looking ahead to the Summer 23 trading season, we expect markets to trade range bound as many fear that resistance levels have been hit and the markets may struggle to give off much more value. French nuclear supply is likely to be a major driving force through Summer 23 with strikes and outages due to repairs very much affecting the market at the moment. We will see bullishness from any unexpected changes in this regard. Summer 23 is also going to be a major season for gas importations to replenish Europe’s gas stocks ready for winter 23. Europe is now traded a reliance on Russian gas, a commodity far cheaper and reliable, for a dependency on LNG which will likely be where the shortfall now comes from. This opens up potential bidding wars for LNG cargoes with the tankers going to the highest bidder during a much shorter window.